Monte Carlo

One question, on your own numbers: when your rent growth and your exit cap are uncertain, what range of levered returns could your deal produce? Enter your deal, set how far each assumption might swing, and your deal is run again and again across that spread. It is a simulation of your own scenarios — illustrative, never a promise.

Unit mix

One row per unit type: how many units, and the in-place rent each one carries per month. These roll up into gross potential rent.

Unit type 1

Label (optional)

UnitsRent / mo

Purchase and financing

Purchase priceThe all-in price.Loan amountThe financed principal.Interest rate (%)Your own note rate.Term (years)The amortization term.Closing cost (%)Share of price paid at close.Loan points (%)Points on the loan, if any.Rehab budgetOne-time rehab dollars.

Income adjustments

Vacancy (%)Of gross potential rent.Bad debt (%)Of gross potential rent.Other income (monthly)Laundry, parking, fees.Concessions (annual)Rent given back per year.

Operating expenses (annual)

Property taxesAnnual tax bill.InsuranceAnnual premium.MaintenanceAnnual repairs and upkeep.CapEx reserveAnnual set-aside.Management fee (%)Of effective gross income.

Hold and exit

Hold (years)How long you plan to hold.Expense growth per year (%)Annual operating-expense growth.Cost of sale (%)Selling costs as a share of price.

Uncertainty dials

Two assumptions carry the most uncertainty on a hold: how fast rents grow, and the cap rate you exit at. For each, set the centre you would plan on and how far it might swing either way. Your deal is then run 1,000 times, drawing each assumption from your own spread. Nothing here is assumed for you.

Rent growth centre (% per year)The annual income growth you would plan on.Rent growth swing (± percentage points)One standard deviation each way.Exit cap centre (%)The cap rate you would plan to exit at.Exit cap swing (± percentage points)One standard deviation each way.

Your bar: levered IRR to clear (%)The return you would need to do the deal.Number of runsMore runs draw a smoother band.

Add at least one unit type with a count and a rent, enter a purchase price, a hold, then set a centre and a swing for rent growth and for the exit cap and the bar you need to clear. Your deal is simulated across your own spread.